Harford County Maryland, Real Estate Market Update, October 2023
I’m back with a new “How’s the Market?” update so if you’re a homeowner in Harford County, Maryland, or planning to become one, I’m going to be sharing the latest real estate market trends from October 2023. Get ready because this one is going to be a bumpy ride! Make sure you stick around to the end of this video so that you can take advantage of some hidden opportunities whether you’re thinking about buying or selling.
Alright, with our first big upset this month, overall in October there were 3 months of supply available in Harford County, which, if you have been watching the updates you will know this is the first time this has increased in a very long time. Although we are still in a seller's market territory this increase has been our first sign of the market changing. Last month in September we were still at 2 months of inventory. Months of supply tells you how many months it would take for all of the homes currently on the market to sell, given the average sales volume. 4-6 months of inventory indicates a more balanced market, less than 4 months means there’s not a lot of inventory available which can drive prices up. More than 6 months of supply means there are lots of properties available for buyers to choose which can drive prices down.
Average Sale Price
The average sale price for a home in Harford County is $373,814 but keep in mind that is the average across all areas. To make things even more confusing that price is up, from this time last year, at $342,143 in October of 2022 but it is also up from $354,911 in September of this year. This is the first increase in the average sale price we have seen in the past couple of months and it was a pretty decent increase. So why are we seeing an increase in the months of inventory available but also seeing a large increase in the average sale price that we haven’t seen for a couple of months now? So if I had to guess I’m thinking it might be a culmination of things I talked about last month. I think the rising interest rates and the slump in the economy might be finally lowering our pool of buyers. I think homes you would see first-time homebuyers purchase are starting to increase due to the lowering amount of buyers. Something to remember is that these numbers encompass all of Harford County. Therefore, I think there are still pockets that people buy in because there is such a low amount of inventory, such as northern Harford County. That could explain the increase in the average sale price because the homes that people are buying are at higher price points because of still being low in inventory. But only time will tell on how this continues. This still might be a great time to take advantage as a buyer though.
List to Sale Price Ratio
Moving along, the average list-to-sale price ratio was 101.5% in October. That simply means that properties were selling for 101.5% of the list price. So although bidding wars are still occurring this has dropped since September’s 102.2%. This is also way down from October 2022 of last year which came in at an astonishing 121%. Yes, you heard that right, I actually had to triple-check that number, real estate has been wild guys. So that being said people are still offering over list but certainly not like we have seen in the past. The decrease from 2022’s numbers shows the fall market was certainly in full effect last year. We aren’t seeing that here but the lack of inventory is still keeping that number above 100% though.
Days On Market
To make things even more complicated it seems that October actually has shown a decrease in the number of days on the market at 21 days from September’s average of 23. That is also down from last year which even at a 121% sale price to list price ratio was at 31 days. As you can see even though we are seeing a decrease this month in numbers we haven't seen a decrease in, in some time we are also seeing increases in specific data.
Interest Rates
OK if you’re thinking about buying real estate in the near future, mortgage rates today even though up from last month have slightly decreased since last week's 8% and are now around 7.5%-7.875% depending on your situation. These can change daily either higher or lower and have increased from last month.
Summary
So in summary when you look at October's market statistics, we are truly all over the place. For the first time in forever, the months of inventory have risen to 3 months. The average sale price has increased significantly with the list-to-sell price ratio dropping slightly and the days-to-sell average decreasing as well. I am going to try and unpack this confusion the best I can. In my opinion, I think what is happening is the buyer pool is tightening up due to the higher interest rates and the economy. This is causing the higher months of inventory and might have something to do with the lowering of the sale price to list price ratio as well. I think higher-priced homes may be the only homes selling right now which is why the sale price average has risen and they may be selling at a pace that is causing the days-to-sell average to lower as well but offsetting the houses that are still sitting. So the question lies in what will occur in November? Historically, the fall market should be alive and kicking but we aren't seeing that data. Maybe we will have a late fall market like we did with the summer market or November might show a further decline but only time will tell. With inventory still remaining low the likelihood is we will remain somewhat stable. Being out in the field has made me notice that homes are still going quickly depending on the area but I do see a slowing when it comes to first-time buyer properties. I have also been seeing a decline in the amount of listings on the market as well. Either way, one really important thing to understand is that these numbers encompass all of Harford County which doesn’t mean that this is happening in every neighborhood. Right now could still be an excellent time to purchase a home while the market might be stalling, and if you are looking to sell depending on where your home is located, it could still be a good time to sell or it might be worth it to wait.